Luca Cinciripini, La nuova sicurezza europea tra Baltico e Artico
Abstract
Following a geopolitical phase that has seen the Mediterranean at the center of European security studies, the northern part of the continent is assuming a new centrality. In particular, we are now witnessing the relevance of the Baltic Sea and the Arctic as new geopolitical sce- narios of confrontation between great powers, in particular Russia and the member countries of NATO. The Ukrainian conflict, in fact, is producing serious consequences in these regions as well, as in the case of the request for accession by Sweden and Finland to NATO, with a consequent increase in international tensions. In addition, the multilateral governance that has so far governed the fate of the Arctic, both in terms of security and scientific research, is being severely tested by the tough confrontation between Russia and the West. Furthermore, climate warming opens new trade routes and provides access to huge deposits of raw materials, accelerating the competition between the players also thanks to the inclusion of powers such as China. In the light of their geographical, political and military characteristics, it is therefore useful to observe the Baltic and the Arctic as two regions of peculiarity, with points of contact that link their future security scenarios.
Dopo una fase geopolitica che ha visto il Mediterraneo al centro degli studi di sicurezza europei, la parte settentrionale del continente sta assumendo una nuova centralità. In particolare, si as- siste ormai alla rilevanza del Mar Baltico e dell’Artico come nuovi scenari geopolitici di confron- to tra grandi potenze, in particolare la Russia e i Paesi membri della NATO. Il conflitto ucraino, infatti, sta producendo serie conseguenze anche in queste regioni, come nel caso della richiesta di adesione di Svezia e Finlandia alla NATO, con conseguente aumento di tensioni internazion- ali. In aggiunta, la governance multilaterale che ha sin qui retto le sorti dell’Artico, sia in termini di sicurezza che di ricerche scientifiche, è messa a dura prova dal duro confronto tra Russia e Occidente. Il riscaldamento climatico, inoltre, apre nuove rotte commerciali e fornisce accesso a immensi giacimenti di materie prime, accelerando la competizione tra gli attori anche grazie all’inserimento di potenze come la Cina. Alla luce delle caratteristiche geografiche, politiche e militari, risulta pertanto utile osservare Baltico e Artico come due regioni con caratteristiche peculiari ma con punti di contatto che ne legano gli scenari di sicurezza futuri.
Keywords
Artico, Baltico, Russia, NATO, UE
Rene D. Kanayama, Renewed Kyrgyz-Tajik Border Conflict – Cui Bono?
Abstract
Following the July 2022 4th Consultative Meeting of the heads of state of Central Asian Coun- tries at the Lake Issyk-Kul, hosted by Kyrgyzstan, and literally on the eve of a high-level summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Samarkand, where among other agenda, the regional powerhouse Iran, so far active as an observer state, formally submitted an application to join the regional geopolitical organization increasingly aspiring to become a global one, and Turkey, an invited guest, announced its preparedness to join the alliance in the future, fierce fighting flared up in the Batken Region of Kyrgyzstan, following a military incursion from the side of Tajikistan. Not only were the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan sitting around the same table sipping tea when young Kyrgyz soldiers were losing their lives defending their homeland, the whole idea behind the summit hosted by Uzbekistan was originally prepared to increase the regional cooperation perspectives, not to watch such efforts disintegrate before the very eyes of the Central Asian and wider regional nations. Moreover, in less than a week, the 77th United Nations General Assembly gathering was to take place, bringing to New York the leaders of the very nations embroiled in another round of Central Asian border conflict – compelling the Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov to dedicate his address entirely to the renewed border dispute with Tajikistan.
Obviously, with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine confrontation and the situation around the Na- gorno-Karabakh recently aggravating to another level of military clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia, a question needs to be asked whether this new Kyrgyz-Tajik engagement is to be seen and analyzed on its own, or whether some other global mechanisms in the backdrop should be identified. The border dispute between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is certainly an issue in force for the past twenty years, having attained its very hot phase in April 2021, and a complex mix of causes needs to be addressed to understand the matter in question – from a lack of proper governance on both sides, decades long competition over water resources in the Fergana Valley, socioeconomic disparities in the geographical area far from their respective national capitals, proliferating organized crime including drug trafficking, and, not the least, the ever contrasting ethnic divide among the several nations of the region. The article will put less emphasis on historical data and perspectives, while maintaining a cer- tain measure of a chronological frame of reference, and instead will attempt to place the cur- rent Kyrgyz-Tajik border crisis into both regional context (as part of the ongoing phenomenon where currently all of the Central Asia gains significance among various global affairs) as well as the context of increasingly crucial global issues, including a proper use of water resources, food security and inter-ethnic symbiosis.
Dopo il 4° incontro consultivo dei capi di stato dei paesi dell’Asia centrale nel luglio 2022 pres- so il lago Issyk-Kul, ospitato dal Kirghizistan, e letteralmente alla vigilia di un vertice ad alto livello dell’Organizzazione per la cooperazione di Shanghai a Samarcanda, dove, tra l’altro, la potenza regionale Iran, finora attiva come stato osservatore, ha formalmente presentato do- manda per entrare a far parte dell’organizzazione geopolitica regionale sempre più aspirante a diventare globale, e la Turchia, un ospite invitato, ha annunciato la sua disponibilità ad aderire all’alleanza in futuro, aspri combattimenti sono divampati nella regione di Batken del Kirghi- zistan, a seguito di un’incursione militare dalla parte del Tagikistan. Non solo i presidenti del Kirghizistan e del Tagikistan erano seduti intorno allo stesso tavolo a sorseggiare il tè quando i giovani soldati kirghisi stavano perdendo la vita per difendere la loro patria, l’intera idea alla base del vertice ospitato dall’Uzbekistan era originariamente preparata per aumentare le pros- pettive di cooperazione regionale, e non vedere tali sforzi disintegrarsi davanti agli occhi stessi delle nazioni dell’Asia centrale e della regione più ampia. Inoltre, in meno di una settimana, si sarebbe tenuta la 77a riunione dell’Assemblea Generale delle Nazioni Unite, portando a New York i leader delle stesse nazioni coinvolte in un altro round di conflitti di confine dell’Asia centrale, costringendo il presidente kirghiso Sadyr Japarov a dedicare interamente il suo dis- corso al rinnovato conflitto di confine con il Tagikistan.
Ovviamente, con il conflitto Russia-Ucraina in corso e la situazione intorno al Nagorno-Kara- bakh che si è recentemente aggravata a un altro livello di confronto militare tra Azerbaigian e Armenia, è necessario porsi una domanda se questo nuovo impegno kirghiso-tagiko debba essere visto e analizzato da solo, o se dovrebbero essere identificati altri meccanismi globali sullo sfondo. La disputa di confine tra Kirghizistan e Tagikistan è certamente una questione in vigore negli ultimi vent’anni, avendo raggiunto la sua fase molto calda nell’aprile 2021, e per comprendere la questione in questione è necessario affrontare un insieme complesso di cause
– dalla mancanza di un buon governo da entrambe le parti, dalla concorrenza decennale per le risorse idriche in Val Fergana, disparità socioeconomiche nell’area geografica lontana dalle rispettive capitali nazionali, proliferazione della criminalità organizzata compreso il traffico di droga, e, non ultimo, la sempre contrastante divisione etnica tra le diverse nazioni della regione.
L’articolo porrà meno enfasi sui dati storici e sulle prospettive, pur mantenendo una certa misura di un quadro di riferimento cronologico, e cercherà invece di collocare l’attuale cri- si del confine tra Kirghizistan e Tagikistan in entrambi i contesti regionali (come parte del fenomeno in corso in cui attualmente tutta l’Asia centrale acquista importanza tra i vari affari globali) così come il contesto di questioni globali sempre più cruciali, tra cui un uso corretto delle risorse idriche, la sicurezza alimentare e la simbiosi interetnica.
Keywords
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Central Asia, Regional Security, post-USSR Conflict Zone, Water Re- sources
META SPACES: COMMUNITIES, THREATS AND INTERACTIONS
Abstract
This paper focuses on key findings emerged from the research activities conducted within the H2020 European project CounteR – Countering Radicalisation for a Safer World Privacy-first situational awareness platform for violent terrorism and crime prediction, counter radicalisa- tion and citizen protection.
The central theme concerns vetting processes and their methodologies applied in multiple ecosystems for both Islamic and far-right radicalisation processes.
The theoretical perspective that we want to focus on is related to the cultural-narrative ap- proaches and the declinations that these can operationally have in the field of socio-cultural intelligence.
The methodological perspective instead relates to the understanding of the context and oper- ational ecosystem of such processes and of those weak signals or risk factors that can be useful to Law Enforcement Agencies to adapt and adjust TRA-I (Terrorism Risk Assessment Instru- ments) models to the contemporary and varied radicalisation processes.
The result is a work of primary importance for national security in a global context of strong radicalisation, for its methodological-operational implications and for the theoretical reflec- tions that make it worthy of further study.
Il presente articolo si focalizza su alcuni risultati emersi dalle attività di ricerca condotte nell’ambito del progetto europeo H2020 – CounteR – Countering Radicalisation for a Safer World Privacy-first situational awareness platform for violent terrorism and crime prediction, counter radicalisation and citizen protection.
Il tema centrale riguarda i processi di vetting e le loro metodologie applicate in molteplici eco- sistemi sia per i processi di radicalizzazione islamica sia per quelli relativi all’estrema destra. La prospettiva teorica che si vuole porre all’attenzione è relative agli approcci culturali – narr- ativi e alle declinazioni che questi possono operativamente avere nell’ambito della socio-cul- tural intelligence.
La prospettiva metodologica invece si relaziona con la comprensione del contesto ed ecosis- tema operativo di tali processi e di quei segnali deboli o risk factors che possono essere utili alle Law Enforcement Agencies per adattare e adeguare i modelli di TRA-I (Terrorism Risk Assessment Instruments) ai contemporanei e variegati processi di radicalizzazione.
Ne risulta un lavoro di primaria importanza per la sicurezza nazionale in un contesto globale di forte radicalizzazione, per le ricadute metodologiche-operative, per le riflessioni teoriche che lo rendono meritevole di ulteriori approfondimenti.
Keywords
Radicalisation, Extremism, Vetting, Islamic, Right – Wing, Socio-Cultural Intelligence, Radi- calizzazione, Estremismo, Islamico, Estrema Destra, Socio-Cultural Intelligence.
Kamil Yilmaz – Farangiz Atamuradova, A comparative analysis of ISIS Channels On Telegram
Abstract
With the increased presence of social media and online messaging platforms in daily lives of individuals came the threat of its appropriation by terrorist groups to spread their narratives, recruit individuals, and serve as a communication channel among members of the group. This research focuses on comparing two Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)Telegram channels – an interactive and broadcast channel – to compare the tactics and strategies employed by the two channels. In particular, the research assesses the discursive strategies presented in both channels, especially those pertaining to the representation of the in- and out-group by the channel moderators as well as followers. The combined analysis of the posts on two ISIS-chan- nels is beneficial for researchers, practitioners, as well as policy makers as it sheds light to how one single group employs different tactics and strategies to communicate their message, polar- ize followers’ viewpoint, and maintain the existence of and support for the terrorist group as a whole, despite its territorial defeat.
Keywords
ISIS, Telegram, terrorism, critical discourse analysis, CDA
Daniele Maria Barone, Social bots and synthetic interactions to stage digital extremist armies
Abstract
Artificial intelligence (AI)-made bots for social media platforms are becoming increasingly sophisticated and able to impersonate average users, developing either as valuable AI tools in the communication field or as an instrument for online deception.
As AI keeps advancing, also terrorist organizations will benefit from these technological de- velopments to increase the efficiency of their use of social media. For instance, they could increasingly avoid being flagged by users or detected and banned by the platforms, supporting radicalization or propaganda with less risk while gaining greater resonance.
From this perspective, the analysis will firstly focus on how social bots work, their role in help- ing to perceive synthetic interactions as authentic interactions, and their potential contribu- tion to social manipulation. Then, the paper will delineate how AI-bot developments intersect with terrorist or extremist communication environments.
I social media bot creati attraverso l’intelligenza artificiale (IA) diventano sempre più sofisticati e in grado di imitare con maggiore efficacia il comportamento degli utenti. Questo li ha resi sia strumenti particolarmente validi nel settore della comunicazione sia una risorsa utile per ingannare gli utenti.
Con l’avanzamento e la diffusione dell’IA, anche le organizzazioni terroristiche potranno ben- eficiare di questi sviluppi in campo tecnologico, migliorando la loro efficenza nell’utilizzo dei social media. Ad esempio, i social bot potrebbero aiutare le organizzazioni terroristiche a diminuire le possibilità di essere segnalati dagli utenti e sospesi dalle piattaforme social, sup- portando i loro processi di radicalizzazione e diffondendo la loro propaganda con un rischio inferiore ma garantendo una maggiore risonanza.
Partendo da questa prospettiva, dopo aver analizzato il funzionamento dei social bot, in quale misura questi ultimi possono favorire la percezione di interazioni sintetiche come autentiche ed il loro contributo alla manipolazione sociale, la ricerca delineerà le aree principali attra- verso cui lo sviluppo tecnologico dei bot si interseca con i contesti comunicativi di gruppi terroristici o estremisti.
Keywords
Social media bot, jihad, far-right, conspiracy theories
Mirosław Karpiuk, Crisis management vs. cyber threats
Abstract
An effective response to cyber crises is determined not only by having forces and resources ade-
quate to such a threat, but having appropriate regulations in this regard are also important. The European Union has not yet developed common standards to deal with the threats that cause such crises, instead leaving crisis management in the event of such crises situations caused by cyber-attacks firmly to national legislation.
Commission Recommendation (EU) 2021/1086 of 23 June 2021 on the Establishment of a Common Cyberspace Unit (OJ EU L 237, p. 1) states that Member States and relevant EU institutions, bodies and agencies should ensure a coordinated EU response to, and recovery from, large-scale cyber incidents and crises. In this situation, it is necessary to swiftly and ef- fectively mobilise operational resources for mutual assistance. In order to provide an effective coordinated response to cyber crises, relevant actors should be able to share best practices and ensure necessary preparedness. Their operation should take into account existing processes and the expertise of the different cybersecurity communities. In turn, according to Commission Recommendation (EU) 2017/1584 of 13 September 2017 on the Coordinated Response to Large-Scale Cybersecurity Incidents and Crises (OJ EU L 239, p. 36), Member States and EU institutions should establish an EU Cybersecurity Cri- sis Response Framework integrating the objectives and modalities of cooperation. The EU Cybersecurity Crisis Response Framework should, in particular, identify the relevant actors, EU institutions and Member State authorities, at all necessary levels – technical, operational, strategic – and develop standard operating procedures that define the way in which these co- operate within the context of EU crisis management mechanisms. Emphasis should be placed on enabling the exchange of information without undue delay and coordinating the response during large-scale cybersecurity incidents and crises.
Keywords
Crisis management, cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, essential service
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